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July 6, 2007

SOLAR WIND

SOLAR WIND HAS TWICE
THE GLOBAL WARMING EFFECT
OF EL NIÑO

THE CONSENSUS ON CLIMATE
MISTAKENLY ATTRIBUTES SOLAR WIND WARMING
TO MANMADE CARBON DIOXIDE

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SOLAR WIND, EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION,
& GLOBAL TEMPERATURE:
EVENTS & CORRELATIONS

by Jeffrey A. Glassman, PhD

Revised 7/10/07

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ABSTRACT

Classical and advanced signal analysis techniques applied to the climate data of global temperature, solar wind, and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reveal new events and correlations in graphical form. The results include:

1.         Major state changes appear in the global temperature record around 1934.4 and 1979.5.

2.         A major state change occurred in the solar wind index around 1937 to 1939, and a secondary state change occurred in the 1970s.

3.         Major state changes occurred in the Southern Oscillation Index beginning about 1919.3 and 1979.4. A large state change occurred during the brief period of 1940.2 to 1942.0.

4.         The state changes are real in the records, but may be due either to data acquisition artifacts or to real physical phenomena.

5.         The Southern Oscillation Index has a weak cyclic behavior with a period of 3.38 years.

6.         Global temperature lags the Southern Oscillation Index by about 5 months.

7.         The global temperature record appears to suffer from excessive processing.

8.         High correlations found by other investigators may be the result of prior data smoothing.

9.         The low level of correlation between temperature and other parameters may be due to excessive noise, equivalently due to low signal to noise ratio. More importantly, it may be due to the closed loop gain of a mechanism in the climate, unknown to the Consensus on Climate, that regulates global surface temperature.

10.       Global temperature is weakly correlated with ENSO. The SOI could account for 4.6% of the measured variation in global temperature.

11.       Global temperature and the solar wind index are correlated. The solar wind index may contribute as much as 8.9% of the processed global temperature variations.

12.       Global temperature lags the solar wind index by about two to five years.

13.       ENSO and the Southern Oscillation affect the global surface temperature. The reverse, that temperature might affect either, is not true.

ENSO may, as the Consensus says, devastate, but it has only half the capacity of the solar wind to warm the planet. By omitting the solar wind, the Consensus underestimates the natural causes of global warming, simultaneously overestimating the anthropogenic sources by the equivalent of two ENSOs, assigning the error to carbon dioxide emissions.

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This page contains all entries posted to Rocket Scientist's Journal in July 2007. They are listed from oldest to newest.

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